The Midterm races of 2018 will either showcase the Democrats Resistance Movement’s strength or lock in a double term for Trump. Even as DNC induced protests rage across America, 44% of voters grip onto their Independent voter status. Besides party declarations, 21st Century voter turnout hovers around 40% in Midterms. For the country to “flip”, voters must be as determined as their protests appear. The Midterms have a trickle-down effect from the governor’s mansions to the national and state Congressional leaders. The trickle continues to local political leaders on village boards, city councils and even to the local school council level. The Midterms will be determined by governors races, money, anti-fa organization/strategy and Millennials.
The State Crown
There are 36 governor races with the majority in Republican strongholds including Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. Those are a few states that turned America deep red in 2016. What are the options for the Resistance Movement to infiltrate the most powerful political position in these states? We were awed by the Blue election of Doug Jones in Alabama but does the DNC have the strength for the entire nation of governor’s races? The past twenty years has proven that money trumps all. The Republican party currently has $38.8 M in the bank while the DNC has $423,000 and $6.1M in debt. Republicans are funneling money to all candidates while the Democrats are picking and choosing those they “like”. Democratic contenders are fending and monetizing their own campaigns, yet voters are guided and coerced to be a part of a team. Strategizing money to individuals when there are races across the nation isn’t going to mean big wins in Midterm governor races. Illinois is a notable example of the DNC’s weakness. Illinois has three viable contenders for the Democratic slot to face a strong Republican for the mansion. The Democrats have spent enough time, money and energy degrading each other that Gov. Rauner almost looks like a shoe-in. JB Pritzker is spending $171,000 a day just to sweep the nomination. What are the true costs of this type of election on the Democrats as a party? If the DNC was insistent upon collaboration and teamwork, one strong contender would have emerged to ensure a win. The seat that can afford the crown will rule the politics.
The Resistance Movement has a core of 19 organizations. Indivisible claims 5800 organizations across the US-basically 2 in every Congressional district. These organizations seem to be a secret society. They are also Progressive and Independent leaning-not straight Democratic party affiliates. A quick glance at any city calendar such as Eventbrite and few events are posted from these organizations. Unless a person seeks these organizations they aren’t knocking on your door. Grassroots was part of President Obama’s success. People that were genuinely involved and loyal. People that would knock on doors night and day with a conviction to make a great man even better. That revolution was run and organized by some of America’s top political talent like W. David Axlerod. Resisters are political novices. The Midterm elections will be the first time many of them will endure the grueling torture of canvassing. The slammed doors and violent rants of pro-Trumpers and all without a dime to fund an office. Petitions are tricky as well, who can sign an election petition, where do they need to live and where do they vote? Resisters claim thousands of newly registered voters. That’s great but 50% of registered voters don’t vote. Left voters knew it was Trump running in the lead the last election, what will implore them to change their ways now? Resisters, like any other movement, have peaked. The truly hard work to win elections is now here. Can they handle it?
This Fall 82 House seats will be in the running of the bulls. According to CNN, only 18 lean Democrat, 16 toss-ups and the rest are red, red, red. The toss-ups are going to be supported by an immense amount of Republican money, power, and influence while Democrats fight amongst themselves. President Obama’s 2012 campaign was nearly $1B. Making Doug Jones a Senator cost $25M. Democrats need 24 seats in Congress so a simple calculation leads us to believe nearly $600M is needed. Democrats need their own Koch brothers (they’re donating $400M to the Conservatives) to turn America Blue. What the Democrats do have is a majority of the Millennial vote. Two words describe this generation-trendy and broke. Trendy is a fad so can hipsters remain consistent voters even in the lackluster Midterm races? According to Pew Research, they are the majority of voters with 55% declaring themselves Democrats. But they’ll need help from a declining Boomer generation and a disappearing Silent generation. The hipsters will need these political experts to join their 19 organizations across America to share more than 60’s revolution stories. Hipsters are the majority of the Resistance Movement but they can’t fund it. Millennials are the lowest paid generation in America. They’ve snubbed union jobs, 9-5’s and more to work as independents. Can they donate the needed funds? No insult is meant, it’s just strategic thinking. The House seats will be determined by the strength of the governors and their party. That’s a fact, not a trend.
Midterm election night will be interesting for some-like the novice Millennials but predictable for many others. A lackluster team effort by the DNC while the Koch brothers ignite a firestorm of dollars, will not change America red to blue. As a lifelong Democrat, I can read the sign in the window. It says closed in big red letters.